A new study published in the medical journal The Lancet shows that in the next thirty years, the Indian economy may jump from fifth to third among the world’s largest economies.
According to the magazine’s forecast, India will have the largest working-age population by 2030 and will continue to grow, reaching the highest level by 2050.
In 2017, India rose to the seventh largest economy in the world. It is predicted that by 2030, India will become the fourth largest economy after the United States, China and Japan.
By 2050, India will surpass Japan to rank third and will maintain this position until 2100. The research report stated that by 2035, China is expected to surpass the United States to become the world’s largest economy.
According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China will be the only major economy that has recovered from the abyss of the historic crisis in 2020.
This means that the IMF does not seem to be optimistic about the current situation of the Indian economy. It is worth noting that in the second quarter of this year, the Indian economy shrank at a maximum rate of 23.9%.
The US media CNBC reported on October 12 that Indian private consumption and investment demand collapsed.
Economist and unorganized economic expert Arun Kumar told the foreign media that India’s official data did not include many data points, especially data points collected from India’s huge unorganized sectors, which are almost completely Transaction in cash.
He explained that according to his own estimates, India’s growth may shrink by nearly 40% due to the impact on the unorganized sector.
Not only that, some of India’s manufacturing orders are losing significantly as the country is unable to cope with COVID-19 and shows insufficient manufacturing capacity.
One development of this matter is that, according to the latest media reports, since September, many large-scale export-oriented textile companies in India have been unable to guarantee normal delivery due to COVID-19.
European and American retailers have The orders for production in India are transferred to production in China. For example, among the orders transferred from India to China, towels, bed sheets and other products have large orders.
Some factories that have received “return” orders from India predict that the number of orders now has been scheduled to May 2021. In other words, some Indian manufacturing orders are being transferred to China.
The analysis believes that the above signs indicate that the Indian economy may be regressing back to its original shape, and this vulnerability also shows from the side that it is difficult for India to achieve the goal of the Lancet magazine or to become the world’s third largest economy.
To make matters worse, the Indian economy is now deeply mired in the black hole of dollar debt.
A new development is that the latest forecast issued by Standard & Poor’s stated that India’s debt to GDP ratio (the ratio of debt level to GDP) is expected to increase by 17% from 2019 until 2021.
The month reached 90.6%. Not only that, Fitch and Moody’s earlier set India’s general government debt at 84.5% and 90.1% of GDP, and this ratio has an internationally recognized warning value of 60.5%.
It is obvious that India’s economic debt has been very serious. In this regard, the IMF report shows that India has the highest debt ratio among all emerging markets.
The latest analysis by Deepak Parekh, a veteran banker, believes that India’s “worst time is behind” and that now is just the beginning, and the Indian economy may be in a state of free fall.
The BWC International Financial Observer Group also analyzed and mentioned in many reports that the Indian economy has been gilded by Western media for many years.
In fact, behind this is a scam of the high growth of the Indian economy, that is, the scam of the accumulation of dollar debt. Once the U.S. dollar capital draws away and global risks intensify, the Indian economy will immediately show its vulnerable vulnerability.
In other words, the Indian economy’s comprehensive industry and foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to support its long-term sound operation, and the 2020 accident is returning the Indian economy to its original shape.
At present, India is still a low-income country with high external dollar debt, slow economic transformation, low processing value, and low labor productivity and education constraints.
It is worth noting that according to data released by the Central Bank of India in September, although the data shows that India’s foreign debt has increased to 558.5 billion U.S. dollars, the ratio of India’s foreign debt to foreign exchange reserves is still as high as 111.7%, which is only the federal government’s debt.
Including the debts of various states, India’s public debt is as high as 1.17 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 250% of foreign reserves. India’s foreign debt and foreign exchange reserves present a serious inverted triangle model.
This further explains one of the reasons why the Indian economy is unable to cope with COVID-19 and the U.S. dollar has withdrawn.
In fact, the Indian rupee has once again become one of the worst currencies in Asia this year after being the worst-performing currency in Asia for two consecutive years in 2018 and 2019, which further makes the Indian economy and currency show fragility.
It is precisely at this time that Wall Street Group, which has always liked to find the right time to harvest wealth spreads on a global scale, maybe focusing on the opportunities brought by shorting the Indian market.
According to the Economist’s explanation, the behind-the-scenes of India’s economy or its retreat is becoming increasingly clear.
The core problem is that some people in India have long wanted to exchange interests with Wall Street Group. In this regard, Wall Street commodity magnate and billionaire Jim Rogers said that he had invested in India before 2014, but after that, he did not have any investment in India.
Rogers also criticized the mistakes made by the Indian economy in the areas of debt and economics and trade, saying that they did not understand the economy at all.
The Economist magazine analyzes that the Indian economy is now in the most urgent situation in 25 years. This also means that the Indian economy may face the risk of a 25-year setback or even a recession back to its original shape.
So, once the Indian economy really goes backward for 25 years, the forecast mentioned earlier in this article that the Indian economy may surpass Japan by 2050 or become the world’s third-largest economy may fail.